Many Reasons for Optimism in the U.S.
ADMINISTERED DOSES ACCELERATING
What Is the Limit?
TAKE AWAY:
Winter weather continued to interfere with supply as shipments and downstream logistics were delayed.
Note: Takes current trend since January 1, extrapolates forward, and cuts off at noted per day administered doses.
HERD IMMUNITY BY Late Q2?
Vulnerable Population Vaccination Rates
Take Away:
High likelihood of achieving effective herd immunity by mid-year.
Note: Assumes current acceleration of trend, capped at 3mm doses/day, with 50% of doses administered going to >65s.
EXPECT DEATHS TO PLUMMET
As Vulnerable Population Gets Vaccine
Take Away:
The model suggests deaths are set to fall dramatically in the coming months as vaccinations of seniors (the most vulnerable group) spread.
Note: "Vulnerable" population is estimated Over 65s less estimated Over-65 Cases & Over-65 Vaccinations.
STATES ARE HAVING MIXED VACCINATION RESULTS
Take Away:
All states have distributed at least 60% of their doses and have given at least 10% of their population at least 1 dose.
Note: Share first injections as a share of total population.
U.S. National COVID-19 Tracking
TAKE AWAY:
Rapid improvement across metrics continues as deaths start to roll over sharply at a lag.
New Cases
Hospitalization Rate
Death Rate
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