Many Reasons for Optimism in the U.S.
ADMINISTERED DOSES ACCELERATING
What Is the Limit?
TAKE AWAY:
Dose throughput has continued to decelerate sharply.
Note: Takes current trend since January 1 and extrapolates forward.
Sources: CDC, Covid Tracking Project, Bloomberg, Census, Bespoke Investment Group calculations. As of 04/29/21
HERD IMMUNITY BY Late Q2?
Vulnerable Population Vaccination Rates
Take Away:
US still on track to hit herd immunity this summer despite slowing uptake.
Note: Percent of over-16 population receiving at least 1 dose.
Sources: CDC, Covid Tracking Project, Bloomberg, Census, Bespoke Investment Group calculations. As of 04/29/21
EXPECT DEATHS TO PLUMMET
As Vulnerable Population Gets Vaccine
Take Away:
At >80% vaccinated, over-65 deaths are falling rapidly.
Note: “Vulnerable” population is estimated Over 65s less estimated Over-65 Cases & Over-65 Vaccinations
Sources: CDC, Covid Tracking Project, Bloomberg, Census, Bespoke Investment Group calculations. As of 04/29/21
STATES ARE HAVING MIXED VACCINATION RESULTS
Take Away:
The South remains far behind the rest of the country in vaccine uptake.
Note: Share first injections as a share of total doses allocated to state by the federal government.
Sources: CDC, Covid Tracking Project, Bloomberg, Census, Bespoke Investment Group calculations. As of 04/29/21
U.S. National COVID-19 Tracking
TAKE AWAY:
The modest uptick in cases has worn off as the US approaches herd immunity.
New Cases
Hospitalization Rate
Death Rate
Sources: CDC, Covid Tracking Project, Bloomberg, Census, Bespoke Investment Group calculations. As of 04/29/21
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